COSMO Wave 1.10

Background

To support federal response efforts, Impact Canada is leading the implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Behavioural Insights (BI) Tool on COVID-19 in the Canadian context. This work is led in collaboration with the Public Opinion Research Team within the Privy Council Office’s (PCO) Communications and Consultation Secretariat, which supports the Prime Minister’s Office in coordinating government communications in accordance with key priorities.

Methodology

With a longitudinal design, the study follows 2,000 participants recruited from an online panel over sixteen data collection waves. New participants are added only when an original panelist stops participating.

Respondents are a representative mix of Canadian adults aged 18 years and older and results are weighted using 2016 Statistics Canada census data to mirror the population distribution in Canada.

Considerations

When interpreting the COSMO results it is useful to keep in mind the context of the data collection period, which may or may not have influenced the responses of survey participants.

During the Wave 10 data collection period (Dec 16-22, 2020):

1. COVID-19 cases were surging in most provinces and territories. The national COVID-19 case numbers in Canada as of December 16 were 481,630 (including 6,416 new cases).
   • British Columbia reported 640 new cases and a total of 11,035 active cases, with 12.6 new cases per 100,000 people.
   • Alberta had 1,270 new cases and a total of 20,169 active cases, with 29.1 new cases per 100,000 people.
   • Saskatchewan reported 168 new cases and a total of 4,213 active cases, with 13.8 new cases per 100,00 people.
   • Manitoba reported 291 new cases and a total of 5,797 active cases, with 21.2 new cases per 100,000 people.
   • Ontario reported 2,139 new cases for a total of 17,084 active cases, with 14.7 new cases per 100,000 people.
   • Quebec reported 1,897 new cases for a total of 17,084 active cases, with 22.4 new cases per 100,000 people.
   • NL, NB, NS, PEI, YT, NT and NU all reported zero or very low case numbers.
2. Increasing case rates were being reported in many countries around the world, coupled with a return to modified lock-down measures in certain countries (e.g., Western Europe, UK).
3. The Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine had been approved for use in Canada and initial vaccines had been administered. The Moderna vaccine was not yet approved for use in Canada but reports of its effectiveness had circulated widely.
4. Widespread news coverage of the COVID-19 variant in the UK began during the data collection period (around Dec 19), and the Government halted passenger flights from the UK.

This page may refer to ‘respondents of the survey’ as ‘Canadians’, or other semantic generalizations. This is for readability only, and is not an endorsement or postulation that estimates should be extrapolated beyond the sample.

Public Risk Perceptions

Significantly more respondents indicated “we are currently experiencing the worst of the crisis” in Waves 9 and 10 compared to rates from Waves 5 to 8. Respondents aged 55+ are more likely to think that “the worst is yet to come” (40%), compared to those aged 18-34 (24%).

Over Waves 1 to 7 there was a gradual decline in the proportion of Canadians who felt that COVID-19 was “spreading fast” (W1: 56%, W7: 31%). However, the proportion of Canadians who think that COVID-19 feels like it is “spreading fast” has increased since Wave 8 to 55% in Wave 10, the second highest point since Wave 1. Since the beginning of the crisis, higher numbers of Quebec respondents have reported that COVID-19 feels like it is “spreading fast,” compared to respondents in other provinces and territories. In Wave 10, 62% of Quebecers think that COVID-19 is “spreading fast” compared to 39% of respondents in the Atlantic provinces.

The Wave 10 survey included a new series of questions that asked respondents about their risk perceptions of engaging in certain activities. Overall, most respondents have accurate perceptions of the risks of catching or spreading COVID-19 in various environments. Respondents think it is most likely that they will catch or spread COVID-19 in public places or large gatherings (e.g., a nightclub, large indoor gatherings, travelling by airplane, dining inside at restaurants). Respondents think it is least likely that they will catch or spread COVID-19 at appointments or small gatherings (e.g., medical appointments, 1-on-1 social visits).

Information Sources

Trust in government information sources were at the highest levels early on in the pandemic. Trust levels gradually declined thereafter, but have remained relatively stable since the summer months. There was a slight increase in trust in some information sources between Waves 9 and 10. Across time, respondents aged 55+ have consistently reported the highest levels of trust in most government sources and trust in government information sources has varied by province/territory. In Wave 10 PT breakdown, trust continues to be generally the highest in British Columbia and the Yukon.

42% of respondents agree or strongly agree that public health recommendations from the federal government are clear and easy to understand. Respondents living in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Nunavut (37%) and Alberta and the Northwest Territories (38%) are the least likely to agree or strongly agree. Respondents in British Columbia and the Yukon (46%) and the Atlantic Provinces (51%) are most likely to agree or strongly agree.

40% of respondents agree or strongly agree that public health recommendations from their provincial/territorial government are clear and easy to understand (down from 47% in Wave 9). Respondents living in Ontario (36%), Alberta and the Northwest Territories (36%), and Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Nunavut (34%) are the least likely to agree. Respondents in British Columbia and the Yukon (48%) and the Atlantic provinces (47%) are most likely to agree or strongly agree.

In Wave 10, respondents were given a series of “fake news” statements and asked to indicate the extent to which they thought the statements were accurate. Responses indicate that some respondents are susceptible to believing false information, men and young people in particular. For example, 15% of respondents thought the following statement was “probably true” or “definitely true”: “The prolonged use of face masks can cause harmful health effects such as CO2 intoxication and oxygen deficiency”. 20% of men aged 18-34 thought the statement was “probably true” or “definitely true”. 79% of respondents reported that they encountered misinformation related to COVID-19, either sometimes (55%) or always (24%) in the past four weeks. Social media was identified as the top source of COVID-19 misinformation.

Compliance with Protective Behaviours

The Wave 10 survey included new questions related to pandemic fatigue. Adherence to key protective behaviours remains reportedly high, and many participants are not getting tired of having to wash their hands frequently, physical distancing or wearing a mask. However, most participants (80%) indicate they are getting tired or somewhat tired of having to avoid gathering with loved ones. 30% of respondents indicate that they could continue adhering to restrictions against gathering with loved ones for 12 months or more. 73% report that they can continue frequent handwashing and 58% can continue physical distancing and mask wearing for 12+ months.

Mental Health

Wave 10 observed the highest number of respondents reporting feeling depressed (15%), lonely (16%) and anxious (17%) most or all of the time since tracking of these items began in Wave 3. Disaggregation of the data by age suggests the pandemic has been particularly difficult for respondents aged 18-34 with regard to mental health. Young people are reporting higher levels of loneliness (23% reported feeling lonely most or all of the time, compared to 16% of respondents aged 35-54 and 12% of respondents aged 55+), and depression (21% reported feeling depressed most or all of the time, compared to 14% of respondents aged 35-54 and 10% of respondents aged 55+). In addition, young people are experiencing the most strain in their relationships with household members.

Vaccine confidence

The Wave 10 survey asked respondents about their intentions to vaccinate across several different measures to add nuance to our growing understanding of hesitancy and its drivers. Using a 7-point scale from ‘Strongly Disagree’ to ‘Strongly Agree’, respondents were asked whether they would get a safe vaccine if it becomes available and is recommended to them. 65% either agreed or strongly agreed that they would (rising slightly from 61% in Wave 9, but trending downward across waves over time).

Using a categorical question, respondents were also asked: ‘If a COVID-19 vaccine became available to you, would you get vaccinated, or not?’ with the following response options: ‘Yes, I would get a COVID-19 vaccine as soon as it became available to me’; ‘Yes, I would eventually get a COVID-19 vaccine, but would want to wait a bit’; ‘No, I would not get a COVID-19 vaccine’; and, ‘Not sure’. When the option to defer choice was introduced in this question, 49% of respondents indicated that they would get vaccinated right away (up from 43% in Wave 9), and 31% said that they would want to wait before getting vaccinated. In a follow-up question presented only to respondents who indicated that they plan to wait, most said they want to wait a month or two (32%), or several months (42% – up from 27% in Wave 9).

Given the number of respondents that have indicated that they do not want a vaccine, Wave 10 included a set of hypothetical scenarios to determine what measures, if any, may incentivize respondents to get a COVID-19 vaccine. 58% of respondents indicated that being assured that there is no risk of COVID-19 exposure while they get the vaccine would make them more likely to get the vaccine right away, followed by a convenient booking system (56%) and getting the vaccine in a convenient location (52%).

The measures are most effective in increasing the likelihood of vaccination for those who already intend to be vaccinated right away, and less effective for those who want to wait or who are unsure. Respondents who do not intend to be vaccinated report that these measures would increase their likelihood of being vaccinated at much lower rates and, in many cases, these respondents indicate that the measures would make them less likely to be vaccinated.

Returning to Normal

While the arrival of an approved COVID-19 vaccine was met with optimism in the media, most respondents do not anticipate that a return to normal is on the immediate horizon. When asked about the likelihood of re-engaging in behaviors that were normal pre-pandemic, only a minority of respondents think it is likely that they will go to a large indoor gathering (22%), fly on a plane (14%), or travel to the US (9%) in the next year. Additionally, only 19% of respondents agree or strongly agree that by summer 2021 they will be able to travel and socialize like they did before the COVID-19 pandemic (an additional 57% are unsure).

Travel Intentions and Border Measures

A majority of respondents indicate that they would like to see both US restrictions (86%) and international restrictions (84%) remain in place for 1-6+ months. When respondents are asked to rate their level of comfort with increasing travel with certain countries there is low comfort overall. However, respondents are slightly more comfortable with increased travel from countries with fewer COVID-19 cases. For example, 15% of respondents are comfortable increasing travel with Australia, and 9% are comfortable increasing travel with South Korea and Japan. In addition, respondents are slightly more comfortable allowing more travellers for study purposes and business purposes, compared to personal reasons (i.e., visiting family and friends, tourism).